Fix-and-flip investing is still a popular way to make money in the residential real estate market. However, recent survey data from Kiavi shows that only 14% of flippers sold properties for more than their initial after-repair value (ARV) estimate. This is the lowest amount recorded in the prior four years. This trend shows that things are getting worse: wrong ARV predictions can easily cut into profits and make it harder to make accurate financing decisions.
It's very important for mortgage brokers who provide fix-and-flip loans to know how ARV affects these projects. Lenders use these estimates to figure out how much money to lend, how much leverage to give, and whether or not the deal is even possible. This makes correct ARV analysis crucial for getting projects financed.
The After-Repair Value (ARV) is the projected market value of a property once all the repairs and improvements are done. ARV in a fix-and-flip investment shows how much a property could sell for at the end of the project, when it is ready to be sold.
Key factors that influence ARV include:
The as-is value is simply what the property is worth right now, before any changes are made. This baseline number sets the level of risk for the original investment and affects the loan-to-value ratios for purchase financing. ARV, on the other hand, estimates how much a property will be worth after all planned upgrades are done. Investors achieve a profit by making targeted enhancements that cost less to perform than the value added to the property.
Private lenders use both metrics to set up ARV loans. Up to 80% of the purchase price and 100% of the remodeling costs are typical terms in this type of loan. Total financing is usually limited to 70–75% of ARV.
ARV directly sets loan amounts since it caps investors from borrowing too much. If a property is worth $200,000 as-is with a $300,000 ARV, but needs $75,000 in improvements, lenders might provide $160,000 in acquisition financing (80% as-is LTV) and $75,000 in rehabilitation financing, for a total of $235,000, which is higher than the $225,000 ceiling that is 75% of ARV. This shows that the project is not viable with the current numbers, and investors would be better off seeking out another property for flipping.
The amount of ARV-based leverage that an investor can obtain will frequently depend on how much experience they have. Lenders usually set higher ARV limits for applicants who are experienced flippers. For instance, seasoned investors might be able to get financing for up to 75% of ARV, whereas novice investors may only be able to get 65–70% of ARV leverage, depending on the project's risk and their credit history.
The best way to calculate ARV is to look at comparable sales (comps), which are recent sales of homes that have similar features to the property in question in the same market.
A typical ARV evaluation includes:
Look for properties that:
Comps should have sold in the last three to six months, if possible.
The estimated renovation plan should make the home in question similar to the chosen comps.
Major upgrades may include:
Appraisers and investors adjust comp values to account for differences such as:
These adjustments help produce a realistic ARV estimate.
Lending partners should take care that ARV estimates are accurate, since they can have a major impact on a borrower’s ability to secure financing. Here are some red flags to look for:
Choosing comps from other neighborhoods or homes that are much bigger can make predicted values higher and change how lenders view a project’s viability.
The prices of active listings do not show what the market thinks properties are really worth. ARV should be based on the prices of homes that have recently sold, not the prices of homes that are listed for sale.
Not all renovations raise the value of a property in the same way. If you overestimate the impact that improvement will have on the property, your ARV forecasts may not be reasonable.
The housing market changes quickly. For example, in 2025, flipped home sales in large metro areas declined 9.2% from the previous year, and investor margins became tighter in many markets. When you use conservative ARV assumptions, you lower the risk in these situations.
Key characteristics of ARV loans typically include:
Due to their short-term nature, interest rates on ARV loans tend to be higher than those found in regular mortgages. This is compensated by the fact that upgrades are paid for through the loan structure, and funding can be delivered much faster.
For brokers, the real value comes from helping investors set up transactions where financing fits the realistic estimates of how much renovations will cost and how much the property will sell for when the project is completed.
As the fix-and-flip investing market changes, brokers are structuring more and more deals that use financing based on ARV.
Several trends are shaping the market:
RCN Capital provides short-term ARV loans for professional real estate investors. Third-party originators can get access to the following benefits through our broker referral program:
Visit our Broker Referral page to learn how our financing options can help you create better relationships with investors and close more deals.